Phil Steele: Rutgers has best team since Greg Schiano’s return, but it ‘may not show.’ Here’s why.

Phil Steele has his finger on the pulse in Piscataway.

The longtime college football prognosticator correctly predicted that Rutgers would end their near-decade-long bowl drought in the 2023 season, then came a few bounces (and coaching decisions) from nailing his 8-4 projection for the Scarlet Knights last fall.

Rutgers will hope that 2025 is an off-year for Steele.

He is high on the Scarlet Knights, saying they have the “best team” since head coach Greg Schiano returned for a second stint in 2020, but believes their final record will not reflect that.

Steele points to their grueling slate, which he placed at 16th nationally in his strength of schedule rankings. That is a 45-spot increase from last year (61st), the fourth-highest differential in the country.

For that, Rutgers is one of the 19 teams Steele placed in his “going down” category, meaning he believes they will finish with an equal or worse record than the previous season. Steele claims his “going down” projections have had an 88% hit rate over the past 20 years.

The Scarlet Knights finished with a 7-5 record for the past two seasons, including a program-record four Big Ten wins last fall. While he does not share a record prediction in the magazine, Steele makes it clear that he does “not see them topping last year’s 7-win total despite this being Schiano’s best team since being back.”

“This year, they have Schiano’s best team since his return with 16 returning starters, but the schedule is at the other end of the spectrum: five road games and Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Illinois, Iowa and three other bowl caliber teams on the slate,” Steele wrote. “So while it is his best team, it may not show record-wise with a much tougher schedule.”

Here are other Rutgers notes from Steele’s preview magazine:

— Steele ranked Rutgers at 44th nationally in his “power poll,” which is “concerned only with the strength of the team and does not factor who they will play.”

He is high on the Scarlet Knights’ offensive line, which he ranked as the second-best in the Big Ten (more on that below).

Steele believes Rutgers could have “an improved defense” if it stays healthy, and says Schiano told him that “for the first time in a while, they have a chance to be a good Big Ten offense and just have to show it this year.”

Rutgers is listed at -125 to win over 5.5 games next season on DraftKings. Our comprehensive DraftKings Sportsbook review shows you how to sign up and use their app.

Big Ten Rankings

On an individual level, Steele picks five Scarlet Knights to earn all-Big Ten recognition.

Second Team: Linebacker

Fourth Team: Wide receiver DT Sheffield, running back CJ Campbell, defensive end Eric O’Neill and right guard Kwabena Asamoah.

Here is where how he views each position group (mobile users, click here to see the graphic):

Steele wrote blurbs about each positions in his Rutgers review.

Here are the most notable ones:

Quarterback: “(Athan Kaliakmanis) is a VHT (very highly touted) with good size and running ability.”

Receivers (including tight ends): “With better health, they could be even stronger.”

Rutgers returns two of its top three receivers from last season in junior Ian Strong (676 yards, team-high 5 receiving touchdowns on 43 catches) and sophomore KJ Duff (425 yards, one 1 touchdown on 27 catches). Tight end Kenny Fletcher, who had 137 yards and two touchdowns on 20 catches in six games before suffering a season-ending injury, is also back.

Running backs: “They lose their No. 2 all-time rusher in Kyle Monangai, but (Samuel) Brown could have a better than expected year and they add CJ Campbell. (Ja’Shon) Benjamin and (Antwan) Raymond looked good in the bowl, so they remain a solid unit and can be deep if Brown returns to form.”

With Monangai now in the NFL, Rutgers will rely on Campbell — a dynamic playmaker from FAU — and its multiple returnees to replace his production. The biggest question mark is how much Brown, who suffered a season-ending injury in mid-October, will be able to contribute this fall.

Defensive line: “They will be tougher up front with more sacks.”

Rutgers added highly-productive defensive ends Eric O’Neill (James Madison) and Bradley Weaver (Ohio), who collected a combined 21.5 sacks last season — nearly as much as the Scarlet Knights mustered as a team (22). The Scarlet Knights have not had a player reach five sacks in a season since the 2016 campaign, and both of them have a good chance of ending that drought.

NFL Aspirations

Here is where Rutgers players stand in the NFL Draft picture among draft-eligible prospects at their position, per Steele:

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Brian Fonseca may be reached at bfonseca@njadvancemedia.com.