Julie Roginsky, a Democrat, and Mike DuHaime, a Republican, are consultants who have worked on opposite teams for their entire careers yet have remained friends. Here, they discuss the week’s political events with Star-Ledger editor Enrique Lavín.
Let me start by welcoming Julie back after being in Tel Aviv as Iran fired its first missiles at Israel last weekend. What was the sentiment in Israel about the expanding conflict in the region?
Julie: It’s great to be back. I’ve never been happier to be home after being forced to figure out a way to get here on my own because our government was doing absolutely nothing to assist Americans who wanted to leave a war zone. (Our journey home involved going through four continents in 24 hours but that’s a story for another day.)
The sentiment in Israel varies, depending on who you speak with. Some people actually believe they can accomplish regime change in Iran. Others are pretty tired of war. The one thing they all share in common is a sense of resolve and unity in the face of missiles being fired at them.
I was with many, many people in several different shelters over the past week and every single one of them was determined about the survival of their country and supportive of their military.
Mike: We are very happy and relieved that you and your family are home safe.
Q: What are the potential consequences of deeper involvement in the rapidly escalating Iran-Israel conflict?
Julie: I truly do not believe our country has the appetite for another Middle Eastern war, especially when there is so much turmoil happening domestically. During wartime, presidents have the ability to seize more power and curtail civil rights. I fear this is Trump’s end goal.
Mike: Much of Trump’s rise in the GOP was the fatigue post-Iraq War and his criticism in general of getting involved in foreign wars. Now we are threatening to engage against Iran, and the US is unable to stop the war in Ukraine. I’m not saying regime change in oppressive Iran wouldn’t be welcome, I just find it interesting that Trump will be the neocon he professed to detest. Not all of Trump’s supporters will follow him on this one.
Q: We saw a growing division within the MAGA movement, especially over America’s possible involvement in Iran. What should we be watching for, and how might this impact President Trump’s agenda?
Julie: Trump is caught between a rock and a hard place – between Israel and, most likely Saudi Arabia and other gulf states that hate Iran and love giving Trump’s family money; and MAGA and his Russian friends, who oppose this war. MAGA will ultimately fall in line with Trump, as they always do. Russia is a different story and this may ultimately pose a problem for Trump, because they will use their proxies here to destabilize his authority.
Mike: Julie makes a great point on Russia. Trump has tried very hard to befriend Russia/Putin, even though it’s been totally unsuccessful, at least when it comes to ending the Ukraine war. Most of Trump’s supporters will trust him and follow him, but the Tucker Carlson faction of the MAGA movement will not blindly follow Trump into a war in Iran.
Q: There’s a disturbing rise in threats and attacks on public officials. Last week we saw a Minnesota state lawmaker assassinated. What’s driving this trend, and what needs to happen to reverse it?
Julie: We live in a world where there are very few Friendly Fire columns anymore. Mike and I care about each other, despite political disagreements. That seems pretty rare in a country where the president uses his bully pulpit to dehumanize his opponents. Social media algorithms and cable news ratings encourage conflict and strife. Reversing this would require electing a different president and regulating content, which is not happening anytime soon in a country that rightly prizes the First Amendment.
Mike: There’s a dehumanizing element to our politics the last decade, and so many just foolishly lionized the assassin who killed the CEO of an insurance company. America has already moved on from these assassinations, but Minnesota won’t.
Imagine this happening in New Jersey. We are friends with so many legislators on both sides of the aisle, despite our policy disagreements. But that’s what the extremists on both sides hate.
They hate that Republican and Democratic legislators can get along with a governor of the other party despite policy differences and sometimes find common ground. We must remember that our political foes are opponents, not enemies.
They are moms and dads, volunteers in their communities, civic leaders, good people who mean well and sacrifice to serve.
Q: Public officials continue to be charged or arrested over the ICE raids. Alarming or the new normal?
Julie: It is both alarming and the new normal. Our constitution is only as strong as the agreement among our leaders to abide by it. We are in a very perilous moment for our nation.
Mike: There needs to be cooler heads prevailing. Elected officials are not allowed to interfere with law enforcement agents, but they are allowed to peacefully protest. These decisions should not become political footballs.
Q: The Trump administration wants 3,000 undocumented immigrants arrested a day nationwide, a quota even ICE agents don’t believe is achievable. What next?
Julie: On the one hand, Stephen Miller wants 3,000 undocumented immigrants arrested. On the other hand, Trump’s friends in Big Ag and the hospitality business are pressuring him to stop the raids so they can keep their farms, restaurants, and hotels functioning. Expect more arrests in Democratic cities as a result. When we look back on this moment in history, we will hang our heads in shame about what we are doing to our fellow human beings.
Mike: The Trump administration could care less about meeting the goal than throwing out the numbers to scare the undocumented immigrants here, and more accurately, to deter any others from coming to the US.
Q: The “No Kings” protests across the country seemed to overshadow Trump’s birthday/Army’s 250th anniversary poorly attended parade. What’s your takeaways?
Julie: Team Democracy has an insane amount of energy behind it. People realize we have a very limited period of time to save our constitutional republic.
Mike: The protest team with the insane energy loses too many elections to Trump. Demonstrations matter little when the Democratic party puts up bad candidates for presidents and pursues policies unpopular with the majority of voters.
Q: Who are the most strategic choices for lieutenant governor candidates for Jack Ciattarelli and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, and what factors should influence those decisions?
Julie: I don’t know whether lieutenant governors really bring much to the table electorally. In the past, the selections were a reward to certain county chairs in order to incentivize them to work hard in November. Now, with most – but not all -- county organizations exposed as paper tigers, I would advise these candidates to choose someone whom they trust to run an important department. Competence is what should matter.
Mike: Julie’s right that the LG selection in and of itself is not likely to sway voters. Christie didn’t beat Corzine because the LG candidates. Murphy didn’t win based on the LG pick. All that said, the decision definitely still matters, as it is the first time the voters get to see the candidates make a major decision and see what kind of team they will build.
Voters get a sense of what matters to the candidates. Will it be purely political appeal? Some sort geographic appeal or gender balance to the ticket? Double down on core issues or find someone who perhaps appeals to a different wing of your own party? Being LG is not an easy job, so gubernatorial candidates should pick someone they trust, who they like, and who could be an effective ally in governing the state.
Q: Speaking of Sherrill, who are you seeing will run to replace her seat in the House to represent New Jersey’s 11th congressional district?
Julie: It looks like former Rep. Tom Malinowski is looking to run for that seat. He will be incredibly hard to beat in a primary.
First, he is immensely qualified at a time when voters desperately crave competence. Second, he does not have any scandals swirling around him, as other potential candidates in that race do, so his campaign won’t embarrass his children. Third, he will raise the kind of money that others will not. His exit from the House a few years ago was a massive loss to the state and the country. His voice is desperately needed now.
Mike: Wait a second!!! Tom Malinowski doesn’t even live in that district, and there’s a long line of ambitious and qualified elected officials who live in the district already. You don’t even have to leave Sherrill’s hometown of Montclair without seeing former Mayor Sean Spiller or County Commissioner Brendan Gill. Attorney General Platkin has been very visible, with many thinking his higher profile would help him run.
There are so many others as well just in the Democratic party, so I should stop listing them, but it’s a big district with many Democratic mayors, legislators and county officials. I don’t think Tom Malinowski is clearing the field there.
It will be contentious special election primary, which will open the door to Republicans like Assemblywoman Aura Dunn, Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway or Nutley Mayor John Kelly to make a run in a special general election.
Julie: Sherrill didn’t live in the district when she first ran and won there, so I don’t think it’s an issue.
Q: Are New Jersey Democrats in trouble with rising energy costs?
Julie: New Jersey Democrats are in trouble with rising costs everywhere. The saving grace is that voters may blame Trump for that in November and not them.
Mike: The short answer is yes. The Democratic leaders in Trenton have been a disaster on energy for the last 10 years, foolishly killing new natural gas generation projects before the major renewable projects were even close to coming online. While there are external factors, make no mistake, Democratic failures in Trenton are the reason we have rising energy prices, all in the chase for green press releases to satisfy the far-left wing of their own party. Ignore the charade of the Democrats blaming PJM or anyone other than themselves.
The Democrats handling of energy in New Jersey has been shortsighted and guided by politics instead of sound policy that looks out for the affordability, reliability and actual emission reductions New Jersey families deserve.
Q: Is Ciattarelli making a strategic error by not distancing himself from Trump?
Julie: Ciattarelli will be tagged as a Trumper whether he distances himself from Trump or not. The question is whether Trump’s numbers in New Jersey will drag him down this fall. They certainly didn’t in 2021, when he almost won, but that was when Trump was out of office and in exile in Palm Beach.
Mike: Jack will be tagged with Trump no matter what, as Julie says, so it is important to get the good when the bad is coming no matter what. The good is energy and turnout from Trump’s base, which Jack clearly benefited from in the primary.
All that said, even though Trump did better in New Jersey last year than in 2020, he still lost by 250,000 votes. That’s not that close. [Former Gov.] Christie Whitman won both times by about 25,000 votes. There are hundreds of thousands of Trump voters who have never voted in a gubernatorial election. If even a fraction can be inspired to turn out, it could alter the outcome of the election.
Q: With Gov. Phil Murphy’s budget up for a vote next week, what are the chances it passes? What are the sticking points to watch?
Julie: Murphy’s budget was never going to pass because the legislature was never going to accept his taxes on all things fun. I am 100% confident that Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin will not want a government shutdown in an election year, so we will have a budget by deadline.
Mike: The budget will pass, but I don’t know if all the tax increases the governor asked for will go through. Democrats should be careful about any tax increases on an electorate that is already pushed to the brink on affordability.
She's a Dem. He's GOP. And they're friends
A note to readers: Can Americans still have a sensible and friendly political discussion across the partisan divide? The answer is yes, and we prove it every week with this “Friendly Fire” conversation.
Mike and Julie are deeply engaged in politics and commercial advocacy in New Jersey, so both have connections to many players discussed in this column. DuHaime, the founder of MAD Global Strategy, has worked for Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and George W. Bush. Roginsky, a principal of Comprehensive Communications Group and author of the Salty Politics column in Substack, has served as senior advisor to campaigns of Cory Booker, Frank Lautenberg, and Phil Murphy.
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